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Published: 16 January 2026

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How we protect Oxford Homeowners from Gazundering

Every so often, two familiar words resurface in the press – usually in opposite markets: gazumping and gazundering.

Estate Agents, unfortunately, tend to rank low in terms of public trust and reputation – something that here at Cherry Picked Residential, we truly try our best to turn on its head. The peculiarity of both gazumping and gazundering, however, is that they are driven by individual buyers and sellers, not estate agents.

People might tell themselves that agents encourage gazumping because it means earning a higher fee, but that is a misconception.

Admittedly, our job is to achieve the best price for people selling their property in Oxford, but gazumping is definitely not what we encourage to achieve that.

Firstly, if a higher offer is accepted, it means starting the legal process all over again, and that takes weeks.

Secondly, whilst it is technically true that estate agents will earn a higher fee if the sale price increases, realistically, that extra 1-2% of fee earned on the extra £10,000, £20,000, or even £50,000 of sale price is not enough to move an agent’s needle. Certainly not enough to be worth the reputational risk and human hurt.

And thirdly? Frankly, anyone can reduce their offer at any time, so who is to say the higher gazumping offer will remain the same by the time the sale is ready to go through?

And that brings us neatly to gazundering – gazumping’s less well-known sibling.

Gazundering: the bane of a buyer’s market (if you don't handle it)

Gazundering, in simple terms, is the act of renegotiating an agreed price by lowering their offer on a property after the sale has been agreed, often just before exchange, to pressure the seller into accepting less.

It can happen at any point, but the problems come when it happens towards the end of a transaction – especially if it is approaching exchange of contracts (or even happens on the day of exchange itself).

Sellers can feel so held to ransom and helpless to do anything else that they agree.

And it is gazundering, rather than gazumping, that might just be about to make its way into headlines you will see.

In a recent property industry article, Osbornes Law, a London-based law firm, claimed that gazundering is becoming more common again, given the current softer state of the market, with buyers attempting late-stage price reductions, often citing surveys or wider uncertainty just before exchange.

Staggeringly, their claim is that this now affects 90% of transactions.

Sure enough, with a figure like this quoted, it was only a matter of weeks before it made its way from the pages of the property industry press to major publications such as The Times and the Standard, where members of the public, rather than just estate agents, would see it.

Of course, it’s a narrative that is bound to get attention, and potentially cause concern.
But it is not one we recognise ourselves in our day-to-day work.

This doesn’t mean gazundering never happens. It does.
But it is far less common than those headlines imply – and, crucially, it’s rarely a surprise in well-managed transactions.

What we’re actually seeing on the ground

Locally, here in Oxford, we see our own agreed prices overwhelmingly honoured through to exchange. Most buyers act in good faith, and most transactions progress exactly as they should.

That 90% figure is just not one we recognise personally, at least not here in Oxfordshire – so that is the first thing to reassure you about if you are thinking of selling your home in Oxford. Reviewing our own figures here at Cherry Picked, we place it at somewhere at the very opposite end of the scale - more like 10%.

Even then, when we do see renegotiation on our own sales, it is usually less a case of gazundering and more likely due to unforeseeable issues raised by full surveys.

In those cases, where a buyer is looking at an unexpected financial loss to set things right, there might be a conversation to be had and a decision to be made – and that, realistically, is good estate agency.

That said, gazundering in the form described earlier – a deliberate act to lower the purchase price during a vulnerable moment for the seller – isn’t unheard of in the industry (or it wouldn’t have a name at all).

Where issues do arise in general estate agency, rather than here at Cherry Picked Residential, they tend not to come out of nowhere. They are usually the result of:

• unclear expectations early on
• slow or fragmented communication
• a deliberate lack of disclosure up front
• a lack of active oversight once a sale is agreed

In other words, gazundering isn’t often a market problem.
It’s a process problem.

And good estate agents plan for process.

How we protect people from gazundering in Oxford

Our approach is built around some simple principles:

• Honesty and transparency, not swagger and complacency
• Prevention beats reaction
• Communication is key

Here’s what it looks like in practice.

1. Structure from the start
   We outline our expectations by setting out clear milestones early in the process: surveys, mortgage offers, the stages we expect to reach in the legal process, etc. It means that everyone understands what ‘good progress’ actually looks like. Structured deals are harder to derail late on, especially once the buyer is engaged and financially committed (i.e. with ‘skin in the game’).
2. Transparency from the start
   If there are problems with the property, we want to be clear about them from the start – at the point of listing and during viewings, not when the offer comes in. If that is a 20-year-old flat roof and it's high time it was replaced, we will broadcast that. It means the buyer has that information to consider when making their decision about what to offer. If a survey later says, ‘the flat roof needs replacing’, the buyer has no grounds to come back and ask for money off as a result. But usually, they won’t feel the need to, either. They appreciated the honesty in the first place, and they aren’t surprised that the surveyor has confirmed what we told them.
3. Active sales progression
   We don’t wait for issues to land in our inbox. Regular contact with solicitors, brokers and buyers allows us to spot potential friction early, while there’s still room to resolve it.
4. Open, transparent communication
   Sellers are kept informed throughout. Not just when something goes wrong, but as a matter of course. It avoids rushed decisions and removes unnecessary pressure. We ask the buyers uncomfortable questions. We’re human, so we know life can get in the way, but we are also professionals, and we have a job to do to see a transaction through its core phases. If we feel a buyer is hiding, making excuses or manufacturing problems or delays, that is a warning sign we will discuss with our sellers straight away. We won’t leave things to chance.
5. Ongoing market awareness
   We keep a close eye on market sentiment and local conditions during the transaction, not just at the valuation stage. If the mood of the market shifts, we’ll be aware and advise accordingly.
6. Sensible contingency planning
   We maintain contact with previously interested parties. It is not to create uncertainty, but to ensure our sellers are never left exposed if circumstances change, if we can help it. If a buyer does try to reduce the agreed price without justification, knowing we have other interested parties on hand is a huge advantage in that negotiation.

The bottom line

Gazundering makes for dramatic headlines – but it remains unlikely in well-managed transactions.

If it does rear its ugly head, our sellers aren’t left exposed or scrambling.

We have a clear plan and are there to offer informed advice. We don’t want anyone to lose money, but we also sometimes help sellers see the full picture.

A bad roof revealed in a survey, that will cost £40,000 to fix? The seller didn’t know, we couldn’t have known, but after a survey the buyer, the seller, and we do all know.

So, do we truly think it is still worth the same price? If we do, then fine – let’s dig our heels in.

But if we don’t, and given the need to disclose it to any future buyers, should we not consider this new offer on its merits?

An attempt to renegotiate due to genuine new information from a survey is not, realistically, true gazundering.

Gazundering, in the shape that sellers really worry about, is the deliberate attempt to reduce an agreed purchase price unfairly, at the stage that a seller is feeling pressure. This is why it is important to be open about issues before the offer comes in, be clear on target milestones from the outset, be in constant contact during the transaction to spot red flags, and to maintain contact with other potential buyers who could offer a safety net if gazundering is attempted.

When it comes to selling homes, the course is rarely smooth – but this sort of scenario can be just a bump in the road, not a roadblock. Nevertheless, it pays to give yourself the best chance to avoid it.

Our best advice? Always work with an estate agent who can reassure you that they have robust processes and a plan in place. Just like we do.

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Published: 08 January 2026

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The housing market is said to run to all sorts of cycles – from weekly cycles to 7-year cycles to 21-year cycles, and everything in between.

But when it comes to its annual cycle, the early New Year period is often one of the busiest – driven in no small part by ‘New Year’s Resolution sellers’.

These sellers are a mix of those who have just made the spontaneous decision to ‘do it’ over the festive period, and those who intended to make the move last year but didn’t.

Either way, this ‘let’s get moving’ resolution typically comes from having had the benefit of time off, with space and time to think, or perhaps to chat as a couple or with family, often during long wintry walks or cosy evenings in front of the fire. It becomes a moment when those “what if we…?” conversations more easily become “let’s do it!”

If these are people who sound like you, you’re not alone. January is always busy for this reason.

But this year, the early-2026 market is shaping up to be much more active than we would expect from a typical January bounce.

The property market always wakes up in January, but in 2026, there’s extra fuel.

Every year, the final few weeks of autumn into the final run-in to Christmas bring a natural slowdown to the property market. It’s not just that the nights draw in and the weather takes a turn, but also because people simply become busy and distracted. Viewings become harder to coordinate. Finally, decision-making becomes very much: “let’s think about it in the New Year”.

This is the normal rhythm of the end-of-year market, which then causes a natural swell in early January, once the festivities are out of the way.

That’s all going on this year, too, but here’s what’s different: the number of people who didn’t act when they usually would have done in the earlier autumn – that period after the school holiday finishes, which generally sees a strong spike in market activity, and which usually runs through to the last days of autumn.

That spike didn’t happen this time, at least not to the same degree as we’d have expected. The autumn market just didn’t come back to life as normal.

Nevertheless, just because people didn’t move, doesn’t mean they didn’t want to.

Why the autumn market didn’t bounce in 2025

Most years, in overly simple terms, autumn brings a second wave of annual activity.

The first wave is the longer, steady peak that builds through January to June, before dropping away in the Summer. Then, in autumn, the property market picks up again – usually a sharper and steeper peak, and shorter-lasting – we tend to get a busy September and October, before dropping off in the autumn half-term week, or, in some years, eking through till mid- to late November.

But in 2025, uncertainty did what uncertainty tends to do: it caused people to press the pause button.

Essentially, what we got in 2025 was a game of two halves. Rightmove numbers show that while the first half of 2025 saw new sellers up 9% and buyer demand up 3% versus 2024, fuelled by the end of the stamp duty holiday in March, the second half of the year reversed to -4% new sellers and -6% demand, as people waited to see what would come from a late-November Budget.

In fact, the 2025 annual data shows higher numbers for new listings, gross sales and net sales than any year since 2017, except for 2021 (the post-lockdown year).

The fact that this is the case despite that slowdown in activity in the second half of the year shows just how front-loaded the property market year was. It’s enough to give pause for thought when you consider just how high the numbers might have been were it not for the delayed Budget, which put so many people off after the summer.

The reality is, however, that if people didn’t move in the second half of last year, it doesn’t mean that they didn’t wish to do so, nor indeed that they won’t. Many have merely delayed proceedings – and the New Year now presents a tempting moment to resume matters.

Affordability breeds confidence, and both are improving.

Another factor adding fuel is affordability improvements.

Confidence is a peculiar thing in property. It can be flying, or it can be fragile, and it can take very little for the market to suddenly shift up or down a gear in the space of days – even hours!

Over the last month and a half, we’ve felt a tangible change in market confidence, for a couple of reasons:

• Firstly, Rachel Reeves’ autumn Budget had loomed like a spectre over the market and gripped businesses and the public alike due to the thought of tax increases that looked set to dent affordability. Nevertheless, although tax increases were observed, particularly the ‘Mansion Tax’ affecting households with properties valued above £2 million, the effect on most people was ultimately negligible compared to what had been predicted.
• The second factor driving improved confidence comes from The Bank of England cutting its Base Rate by 0.25% to 3.75% on 18 December 2025. Not only this, but it has said that rates are likely to be “on a gradual downward path”, i.e., still likely to fall further, although it depends on inflation and other factors (Bank of England)

Actually, here in Oxford, property values have averaged £505,000 over the past year according to ONS data, so like most of the UK, the majority of homeowners here will escape the so-called ‘Mansion Tax’ due to kick in in 2028. Nevertheless, that is not true of the whole city. In North Oxford, in places like Summertown, Park Town and Kingston Manor, it is not so very unusual to see homes valued in excess of £2 million – so there will be some effect to be seen at that end of the market as we get closer to the 2028 implementation.

That said, the general sense of relief felt after Budget Day by the majority market here, still being over two years away from tax rises that will affect the minority in that regard, and coupled with the boost that lower interest rates typically bring to the market, has all been enough to move the needle in the right direction.

Big lenders are already cutting mortgage rates.

The effect on mortgages has already been felt. Moneyfacts data reported by MoneyWeek puts the average two-year fixed at 4.81% as of 5 January 2026 (MoneyWeek). Some mortgage rates have now even dropped below 3.5%.

Those particular types of deals are not necessarily common or easy-to-access mortgages, however. What matters more is how we see the general mortgage market behave, because what we typically see at the start of a rate-cutting cycle is a bit of competitive momentum.

And this is something we are already aware of.

HSBC became the first big UK lender to cut mortgage rates in 2026, following December’s base rate cut, with reductions across residential and buy-to-let products (The Guardian).

As we would expect, that has not happened in isolation; other mainstream banks and lenders are already following or set to follow suit.

When big names start moving, other smaller and specialist lenders tend to respond in kind, and that can fan the flames of burgeoning market confidence. This fuels buyer demand – as well as seller belief.

It all makes for a positive coming together of various factors: ‘New Year’s Resolution’ home-moving activity, a post-Budget sense of relief, improved affordability and finally an artificial swelling of listing numbers, brought on from delayed autumn movers.

This is why there is an expectation for an even more pronounced early-year property market bounce in 2026 – including here in Oxford.

How to make your move in Oxford happen in 2026

If you are one of those people who made the decision over Christmas to move home this year, now is a great time to seize the day and turn that resolution into momentum – whether the move is set for the beginning, middle or even the end of the year.

Here are three steps to think about now to reduce stress and improve results later:

1) Get your timeline straight

Whenever you are hoping to move this year, work backwards from that target date. It might already be the right time to start preparing – even if the plan is to move home later in the year.

The sooner you can get wheels in motion, the better. It often surprises people that sales can take six months or more here in Oxford; the conveyancing process is currently taking almost four months here on average – even when everything goes according to plan. At Cherry Picked Residential, our average time from listing a new property for sale to getting a sale agreed, as well the time it takes to see the transaction itself through the legal process, are both better than the local market averages.

That said, it can only make sense to get your property ready and fix any minor problems ahead of time.

There is also no harm in planning a date for photos in advance. Drawing up a clear timeline stops the year from disappearing in a blur and later rushing to play catch-up.

2) Price your Oxford home sensibly and realistically

Buyers may be more active, but they are still price-conscious. Rightmove’s December Housing Index Report noted that sellers still need “tempting prices” to attract attention, as there is plenty of choice for buyers online. (Rightmove)

Mortgage rates are improving, which means affordability is easing – but whilst the temptation might be to push prices up as a result, buyers are likely to remain fairly cautious. General market expectations for price movement this year are similar to what was borne out last year – perhaps rising by 2% over the course of the whole year.

In Oxford, that would be around the £10,000, based on that local average property value mentioned earlier, £505,000 (Office for National Statistics (ONS)).

3) Presentation and great property marketing are key

If a busier market means more properties for sale, you will be competing for attention – even if there are more buyers out there.

It is something to take on board for photography and viewings. Try not to be tempted to cut corners when it comes to marketing.

A final thought

If you’ve decided over the festive period that 2026 is the year you make your move, you’re in good company.

The market isn’t just waking up – it’s already showered, dressed and bouncing round the breakfast table.

That blanket of stress that had seemed to drape itself over the market last year feels to have been at least rolled back, even if not entirely folded up and put away in the airing cupboard. Affordability is improving, with interest rates down and set to fall further, according to the Bank of England itself.

The “wait and see” attitude that many had been harbouring seems to be quickly turning into “let’s get moving”.

If you want to move this year in Oxford, we would love to help out – whether you are selling a home, buying a home, or both.

Please get in touch with the Cherry Picked Residential team, and let’s plan what your next move looks like.

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Published: 27 November 2025

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TL;DR – The Autumn Budget 2025 at a glance:

• No Stamp Duty changes
• No CGT changes on main residences
• New High Value Council Tax Surcharge (homes £2m+)
• +2% on property/dividend/savings income that will hit landlords
• Threshold freezes = reduced affordability over time

After all the rumour-milling and second‑guessing, Rachel Reeves finally stepped up to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday.

A series of leaks and reversals in the weeks and months leading to this moment might have left us all feeling trepidatious about what was coming. That, indeed, was how many had felt; it was what the news was reporting; it was perhaps even what Reeves herself, were we feeling cynical, may have been hoping for.

But then the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - essentially the Treasury watchdog - bounded in feet first, with just 45 minutes to spare, and dropped its Budget forecast online for the world to start wading through – to all intents and purposes confirming many if not all of the key measures that Reeves was set to announce.

It really was an almost farcical occurrence, were this whole affair not already starting to seem like something of a pantomime, with a pre-Budget Prime Minister’s Questions taken off mainstream news channels in favour of panels of experts telling us all what Rachel Reeves was about to say!

When she did eventually stand up, her irritation – or indeed, her outright outrage – was so palpable as to be barely concealed.

Some leaks are less acceptable than others, it would seem.

What came next felt like something akin to a slow exhale. Homeowners, landlords and would‑be movers – not to mention business owners, and that includes estate and letting agents – had been bracing for any number of major tax hikes on property, perhaps along with the odd rabbit pulled from the hat that might act as a catalyst for greater market activity.

We wrote about it ourselves last week – the fears of stakeholders, the effect it was having on a market that was essentially ‘waiting to see’, our own views on what might come through based on the speculation and commentary that had built up in the days and weeks prior.

The headline, however, is that the sweeping changes many feared did not materialise – not for property. No sign of rabbits either.

It was so tempting to put something out immediately – a ‘nothing to see here!’ article, ‘now let’s move on.’

Nevertheless, there are some important points to have come from the Budget announcement, with some winners and indeed some losers – and not least, in a way that could play its part in a marketplace such as Oxford.​

So, with the benefit of some time to mull this all over, here is our take on what was actually said, what didn’t transpire, and what it all means for homeowners, landlords, buyers and tenants, here in the city of dreaming spires.

The build‑up: uncertainty and a stalled upper market

In the run‑up to the Budget, the property market – particularly at the mid‑to‑upper end – was gripped by speculation. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax being extended to main residences, historic reforms to Stamp Duty – even suggestions of outright abolition – and a wholesale rebanding of Council Tax all conspired to create a “wait and see” mood, and naturally it slowed down the market.

This was only intensified when the Budget date was announced, pushing it to late November. Many higher‑value transactions simply went on hold; other homeowners with a mind to come to the market after the summer holiday, simply did not.

For estate agents, it has felt like weeks of conversations with somewhat nervous sellers and buyers who have ping-ponged between debilitating caution and eager optimism, all wondering if they were about to be hit with a new wave of property taxes or gifted a windfall in the form of stamp duty removal.​

As the day of the Budget announcement drew closer, the media unsurprisingly fanned the flames of expectation and hesitation – which is why, whilst significant in places, it all felt like something of an anti‑climax.

That said, there were a couple of key changes, and they could come to have some real impact on the shape of the market in Oxford – perhaps more than other places.

The non‑events: what didn’t change in the Autumn Budget 2025

The most important part of this Budget for many local homeowners is what stayed the same. Despite intense lobbying and speculation, there are no changes to Stamp Duty on residential purchases. No cliff edge, as we’ve seen before. But no relief for buyers – something many hoped for, which may have stalled transactions and prevented new sales being agreed in the numbers we would expect to see in the normally busy autumn.

Likewise, no new Capital Gains Tax measures aimed at main residences – a worry for many owners and would-be sellers of more expensive homes.

There is also no wholesale revaluation or rebanding of Council Tax... but we will expand on this in the next section.​

There is also no new National Insurance charge on rental income, which Pre‑Budget briefings had suggested was firmly on the table as a way to “equalise” tax on work and wealth… but again, not is all as it seems here, and we will go into more detail on this a bit later, too.

 A “Mansion Tax”: High Value Council Tax Surcharge

When it came to key measures affecting property directly, there were only really two – and one of these is the introduction of what amounts to a so-called ‘Mansion Tax’. From 2028, following a rebanding exercise to identify the most valuable properties, there will be a new High Value Council Tax Surcharge on properties worth over £2 million.

The policy is framed as a fairness measure. It was pointed out by the BBC that in places like Darlington in the North East of England, a typical Band D home currently triggers more Council Tax than a £10 million property might do in Mayfair. It is an issue that was bound to be addressed – and let’s face it, this particular example probably should be.

The surcharge will be tiered, with an entry‑level charge of £2,500 per year for homes valued at £2 million to £5 million, rising to £7,500 for properties above that. We have to recognise that there are significant numbers of £2 million‑plus homes in parts of Oxford – notably north Oxford, OX2 postcodes including Summertown, Jericho and Walton Manor, and surrounding villages like Boars Hill.

Not only that, but whilst the fact that it is due to come in during 2028 offers owners of these homes some respite, for now, it does also mean that plenty of properties are likely to creep up and pass that threshold over the course of these next couple of years – and it may be that, in the same way as stamp duty thresholds can create something of a cliff-edge, properties at these price points may struggle to achieve offers above them.​

In Oxford, we could certainly expect to see concerns about this effect feed into how higher‑value homes are marketed. Clear communication about ongoing annual costs will become more important.

Higher tax for landlords on property, savings and dividend income

Many had expected the Chancellor to impose NI on landlords; she hasn’t. But she has achieved a similar effect. Instead of using National Insurance as the mechanism to tax this sector, Reeves has opted to raise the rates of tax on property, savings and dividend income by 2 percentage points, arguing that income from assets should bear more of the load precisely because it does not pay an NI‑equivalent. Full technical details will come through HMRC guidance, but the broad-brush picture is this:​

• Landlords with taxable rental profits will see a gradual increase in the effective tax rate they pay on that income, particularly higher‑ and additional‑rate taxpayers.
• Investors with sizeable dividend and savings income will also face higher tax bills, although existing allowances are being retained to protect those with more modest amounts.

For many smaller landlords in Oxford – and in particular, those who let out their properties as individuals, rather than through the vehicle of a limited company – this will show up as a subtle erosion of net yields rather than a sudden shock – a few hundred pounds more in tax each year rather than a wholesale rewrite of their business model. Portfolio landlords and those already close to higher‑rate thresholds will feel it more keenly, especially when combined with frozen tax bands and existing restrictions on mortgage interest relief.

Several things seem likely. Many more landlords will incorporate companies; some landlords will see this another reason to exit the sector entirely; but most likely of all, landlords facing a drop in income may aim to recoup this by way of increased rent.

In other words, what the government will dress as a fair and just rebalancing will likely come to impact those renting, by way of increased monthly rent payments to make up what landlords feel they are losing.

Other general points in the Budget 2025: threshold freezes, bracket creep and affordability

Alongside these targeted changes, the government is freezing personal tax thresholds and the main employer NICs threshold for a further three years than planned, taking us into the next decade.

On paper, headline Income Tax and NI rates are unchanged; in practice, as wages rise over time, more people are pulled into higher tax bands. This so‑called “fiscal drag” is one of the biggest revenue‑raisers in the entire Budget – enough to raise £8 billion extra in tax revenue by 2029.​

For the property market, although not a direct tax, this still matters, because it quietly chips away at take‑home pay. Mortgage lenders will take affordability into account, and so buyers who might otherwise have stretched for that extra bedroom or larger garden may find that, after tax and other rising costs, their monthly budget becomes too tight – and if that transpires it could result in a knock-on effect for property prices.

At the upper end of the market, where school fees, childcare and lifestyle spending are already significant, even a small reduction in disposable income can translate into more cautious borrowing decisions and longer decision times.​

We are going to see this reflected in price sensitivity and affordability assessments as time moves on. 

Inflation, interest rates and mortgage costs

The other side of the coin is macroeconomic stability. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects inflation to ease back towards the Bank of England’s 2% target over the next couple of years, due to measures in this Budget – particularly around energy bills, transport costs and fuel. The Bank of England frequently cites higher inflation as the reason interest rates can’t fall further; it stands to reason that as inflation is deemed likely to fall, interest rates are likely to fall also.

Someone taking out a typical two‑year fixed mortgage in late 2025 is already paying substantially less each year than they would have done in mid‑2024 – roughly the equivalent of £1,200 per year on average on a representative loan. The government’s strategy of reducing borrowing each year and building a bigger “buffer” against its fiscal rules is, in part, designed to keep gilt markets calm and avoid any repeat of the kind of volatility that previously pushed mortgage rates sharply higher… and it has to be acknowledged that gilt markets responded very favourably following the release of the OBR’s Budget report.

For buyers and movers in Oxford, the hope is that this will translate into a gentler, more predictable downward path for mortgage rates over the next few years, perhaps offsetting those stealthy tax rises, and improving affordability in the process.

So, finally… is the Budget 2025 good or bad news for Oxford?

If you felt underwhelmed on Wednesday, you weren’t alone. There is no new tax on the family home, no Stamp Duty sweeteners, no sudden Council Tax revaluation.​

Instead, the impact falls mainly on:

• Owners and buyers of £2 million‑plus homes, who will face a new ongoing surcharge from 2028.
• Higher‑rate taxpayers with significant rental, dividend or savings income, who will gradually pay more on those receipts.
• Households drawn into higher tax bands over time as thresholds are frozen, subtly reducing disposable income and borrowing power.

For the population as a whole, it may end up feeling like a little extra here and there, but in many cases probably not enough to really notice in the scheme of things.

However, here in Oxford we do have to take note of the effects some are really going to feel – indeed, not an insignificant number of people.

Plenty of households, particularly in North Oxford and some of our surrounding villages, will find themselves paying £2,500 or even £7,500 extra in council tax each year from 2028 – and whilst plenty of people will roll their eyes and snip that ‘they can afford it’, you’d be surprised.

Also, in a city like Oxford that has a far higher proportion of Private Rented Sector housing – 32% of properties, compared to around 20% nationally – it hints at a very significant number of landlords, a majority of whom will be liable for this extra 2% tax on lettings income.

Nevertheless, a period of undeniable uncertainty is over. The rumours have been settled, and the pathway is clearer. Buyers and sellers who have been sitting on their hands can now move forward with much more confidence and clarity.

The next few months will reveal how quickly that renewed confidence feeds through into instructions, viewings and offers – but for now, it feels as though the market has finally been given permission to start breathing again.

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Published: 21 November 2025

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With the Autumn Budget now just days away, uncertainty remains the defining characteristic of the UK’s economic landscape. Markets have been unsettled by a string of government reversals, unusually candid pre-Budget commentary from the Chancellor (leading to further reversals!), and competing briefings from across Westminster.

Rachel Reeves admittedly faces a formidable challenge: balancing fiscal discipline with pre-election pledges, whilst facing a sizeable deficit and shaky investor confidence.

For homeowners, landlords, and would-be buyers in Oxford, the stakes feel pretty high.

Here is a concise overview of the economic backdrop and the seven Budget areas most likely to impact the local property market.

The Economic Backdrop

It’s hard to claim the economic outlook is anything other than sluggish. Here are some key points that are currently defining it:

Growth Has Stalled

The UK continues to struggle with low or near-flatlined growth. GDP grew just 0.1% between July and September, a fragile uptick following a contraction in July. Business confidence remains muted, and unemployment has risen to 4.8%, its highest since spring 2021.

Inflation Remains Stubborn, But Has Finally Eased

Inflation held at 3.8% for three months from July to September. This had already offered some relief, given market predictions that it would have reached 4% again, but now – offering some rare positive news for the Chancellor as she prepares for next Wednesday – it has dropped to 3.6% in October. This could be a sign that inflation is set on a downward path at last, but nevertheless it remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Interest Rates on Hold

The Bank of England maintained its base rate at 4% this month, in a narrow 5–4 vote. Some analysts believed the Chancellor’s earlier hints of income tax rises might nudge the MPC toward a cut before the New Year, but the recent U-turn on tax increases dampened those expectations. Nevertheless, a Reuters poll of market analysts revealed a consensus view that rates would be cut when the MPC meets on December 17, and given the announcement that inflation has at last fallen from 3.8% to 3.6% - despite steep increases in food prices – this becomes even more likely.

In the meantime, for those borrowers out there, average Standard Variable Rates remain above 7%, with typical fixed rates closer to 5%.

Bond Markets Cautious

Ten-year gilt yields have softened to around 4.1%, signalling a modest improvement in borrowing costs, though volatility continues to be a risk factor.

The Property Market: A Mixed Picture

House Prices Rising Slowly But Behind Inflation

Nationally, property values are around 2.4% higher than a year ago, indicating modest growth that nevertheless lags behind inflation.

Asking Prices Drop

Rightmove’s October index showed rising asking prices, but November brought a sharper-than-expected 1.8% fall, exceeding the usual seasonal dip. Asking prices aren’t the same as completed sales, but it is an unsettling trend.

Landlords Under Strain

Nearly four in ten landlords are said to be considering a full or partial exit from the market, according to a survey by specialist lender Landbay, reported in the Landlord Today magazine, with tax pressures, regulation, and rising costs chipping away at yields.

North–South Divide Widens

The disconnect between regions persists. Whilst parts of the North and Midlands are seeing growth, London and the South East have seen drops by as much as 10% in some areas.

Oxford’s Unique Position

Local ONS data shows that sold prices in Oxford have remained broadly flat over the past 12 months. Rightmove’s House Price Index, however, shows a fall in asking prices, around 10% year-on-year. It really demonstrates that many property listings are overpriced, with seller’s expectations running ambitiously ahead of what buyers are really willing to pay.

Seven Budget Areas Oxford Homeowners and Landlords Should Watch

With a focus on how the Budget might affect property matters, here are seven areas we believe homeowners, landlords and buyers should keep an eye on next week, especially here in Oxford.

1. Stamp Duty Overhaul

Speculation continues that stamp duty could be significantly reformed. Options reportedly under review include:

• replacing the one-off charge with an annual tax on high-value homes
• spreading payments over several years
• scrapping SDLT entirely in favour of land value taxes or higher council tax bands

Oxford, with an average sold price of around £502,000, would feel any such changes keenly. High-value regions like London, the South East, and Oxfordshire are likely targets for revenue-raising reforms.

2. Council Tax Revaluation and New Upper Bands

Council tax is based on 1991 valuations, and the Treasury is under growing pressure to modernise the system. The Budget may introduce:

• new, higher bands for premium properties
• adjustments to reflect up-to-date values
• more flexibility for local authorities

For many Oxford households, especially in North and Central Oxford, Summertown, Jericho and Headington, this could mean materially higher annual charges.

3. Capital Gains Tax Changes

While a full CGT charge on primary residences is unlikely, modifications to Principal Private Residence Relief have been floated. Options include:

• a gains threshold above which CGT is payable (e.g., £1.5m+)
• increased CGT rates
• lower tax-free allowances for investment property

Landlords looking to dispose of assets, or homeowners with high-value properties, should take note.

4. Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT

The widely expected income tax rises have been shelved… for now. In their place, the Chancellor may opt for “stealth taxes”, including:

• extended freezes to thresholds (“fiscal drag”)
• a possible uplift in VAT
• higher National Insurance contributions
• and, critically, NI applied to rental income, affecting around 360,000 landlords and reducing some yields by up to 10%

The fiscal gap remains large, and little is genuinely off the table.

5. Inheritance Tax and Other Wealth Taxes

Inheritance Tax could see tightened thresholds or higher rates, while broader wealth taxes may also be under consideration.

These measures would be designed to target the top end of the market, likely to affect Oxford more than many other regions.

6. Landlord Regulation and Renters’ Rights

The Renters’ Rights Act and Making Tax Digital will increase compliance burdens for landlords in the coming year. Budgets often include incentives or ‘sweeteners’, and this year that might include relief for insulation or green improvements, in an attempt to woo landlords to stay in the market in the face of tighter regulation, rising costs and squeezed margins.

Landlords reviewing portfolio strategy should watch closely for any transitional arrangements or new reliefs.

7. Mortgage Market Measures and Buyer Support

There is also speculation that the Chancellor may revisit mortgage support mechanisms, particularly for first-time buyers. Options reported in recent commentary include tweaks to guarantee schemes, adjustments to affordability assessments, or targeted assistance for low-deposit borrowers. While major intervention is unlikely, even modest adjustments can influence demand at the lower and middle ends of the market – and in a place like Oxford where affordability is a perennial issue for our younger buyers, this could spell some positive news.

Final Thoughts for Oxford Homeowners and Landlords

This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable Budgets in recent years. Policy U-turns, market sensitivity and political pressure create a volatile environment where even last-minute decisions can have material consequences.

For landlords, a combination of regulatory tightening and potential tax rises could reshape yield calculations. For homeowners, particularly in higher-value Oxford postcodes, changes to stamp duty, CGT or council tax could be financially significant.

At Cherry Picked Residential, we will stay tuned to every Budget development and bring you practical, local guidance, so stay tuned to our social media channels for any further updates. We will also be releasing a follow-up piece once the final details are known next Wednesday.

The market may move fast after next week’s Budget, and indeed it may well move unpredictably.