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TL;DR – The Autumn Budget 2025 at a glance:
- No Stamp Duty changes
- No CGT changes on main residences
- New High Value Council Tax Surcharge (homes £2m+)
- +2% on property/dividend/savings income that will hit landlords
- Threshold freezes = reduced affordability over time
After all the rumour-milling and second‑guessing, Rachel Reeves finally stepped up to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday.
A series of leaks and reversals in the weeks and months leading to this moment might have left us all feeling trepidatious about what was coming. That, indeed, was how many had felt; it was what the news was reporting; it was perhaps even what Reeves herself, were we feeling cynical, may have been hoping for.
But then the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - essentially the Treasury watchdog - bounded in feet first, with just 45 minutes to spare, and dropped its Budget forecast online for the world to start wading through – to all intents and purposes confirming many if not all of the key measures that Reeves was set to announce.
It really was an almost farcical occurrence, were this whole affair not already starting to seem like something of a pantomime, with a pre-Budget Prime Minister’s Questions taken off mainstream news channels in favour of panels of experts telling us all what Rachel Reeves was about to say!
When she did eventually stand up, her irritation – or indeed, her outright outrage – was so palpable as to be barely concealed.
Some leaks are less acceptable than others, it would seem.
What came next felt like something akin to a slow exhale. Homeowners, landlords and would‑be movers – not to mention business owners, and that includes estate and letting agents – had been bracing for any number of major tax hikes on property, perhaps along with the odd rabbit pulled from the hat that might act as a catalyst for greater market activity.
We wrote about it ourselves last week – the fears of stakeholders, the effect it was having on a market that was essentially ‘waiting to see’, our own views on what might come through based on the speculation and commentary that had built up in the days and weeks prior.
The headline, however, is that the sweeping changes many feared did not materialise – not for property. No sign of rabbits either.
It was so tempting to put something out immediately – a ‘nothing to see here!’ article, ‘now let’s move on.’
Nevertheless, there are some important points to have come from the Budget announcement, with some winners and indeed some losers – and not least, in a way that could play its part in a marketplace such as Oxford.
So, with the benefit of some time to mull this all over, here is our take on what was actually said, what didn’t transpire, and what it all means for homeowners, landlords, buyers and tenants, here in the city of dreaming spires.
The build‑up: uncertainty and a stalled upper market
In the run‑up to the Budget, the property market – particularly at the mid‑to‑upper end – was gripped by speculation. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax being extended to main residences, historic reforms to Stamp Duty – even suggestions of outright abolition – and a wholesale rebanding of Council Tax all conspired to create a “wait and see” mood, and naturally it slowed down the market.
This was only intensified when the Budget date was announced, pushing it to late November. Many higher‑value transactions simply went on hold; other homeowners with a mind to come to the market after the summer holiday, simply did not.
For estate agents, it has felt like weeks of conversations with somewhat nervous sellers and buyers who have ping-ponged between debilitating caution and eager optimism, all wondering if they were about to be hit with a new wave of property taxes or gifted a windfall in the form of stamp duty removal.
As the day of the Budget announcement drew closer, the media unsurprisingly fanned the flames of expectation and hesitation – which is why, whilst significant in places, it all felt like something of an anti‑climax.
That said, there were a couple of key changes, and they could come to have some real impact on the shape of the market in Oxford – perhaps more than other places.
The non‑events: what didn’t change in the Autumn Budget 2025
The most important part of this Budget for many local homeowners is what stayed the same. Despite intense lobbying and speculation, there are no changes to Stamp Duty on residential purchases. No cliff edge, as we’ve seen before. But no relief for buyers – something many hoped for, which may have stalled transactions and prevented new sales being agreed in the numbers we would expect to see in the normally busy autumn.
Likewise, no new Capital Gains Tax measures aimed at main residences – a worry for many owners and would-be sellers of more expensive homes.
There is also no wholesale revaluation or rebanding of Council Tax... but we will expand on this in the next section.
There is also no new National Insurance charge on rental income, which Pre‑Budget briefings had suggested was firmly on the table as a way to “equalise” tax on work and wealth… but again, not is all as it seems here, and we will go into more detail on this a bit later, too.
A “Mansion Tax”: High Value Council Tax Surcharge
When it came to key measures affecting property directly, there were only really two – and one of these is the introduction of what amounts to a so-called ‘Mansion Tax’. From 2028, following a rebanding exercise to identify the most valuable properties, there will be a new High Value Council Tax Surcharge on properties worth over £2 million.
The policy is framed as a fairness measure. It was pointed out by the BBC that in places like Darlington in the North East of England, a typical Band D home currently triggers more Council Tax than a £10 million property might do in Mayfair. It is an issue that was bound to be addressed – and let’s face it, this particular example probably should be.
The surcharge will be tiered, with an entry‑level charge of £2,500 per year for homes valued at £2 million to £5 million, rising to £7,500 for properties above that. We have to recognise that there are significant numbers of £2 million‑plus homes in parts of Oxford – notably north Oxford, OX2 postcodes including Summertown, Jericho and Walton Manor, and surrounding villages like Boars Hill.
Not only that, but whilst the fact that it is due to come in during 2028 offers owners of these homes some respite, for now, it does also mean that plenty of properties are likely to creep up and pass that threshold over the course of these next couple of years – and it may be that, in the same way as stamp duty thresholds can create something of a cliff-edge, properties at these price points may struggle to achieve offers above them.
In Oxford, we could certainly expect to see concerns about this effect feed into how higher‑value homes are marketed. Clear communication about ongoing annual costs will become more important.
Higher tax for landlords on property, savings and dividend income
Many had expected the Chancellor to impose NI on landlords; she hasn’t. But she has achieved a similar effect. Instead of using National Insurance as the mechanism to tax this sector, Reeves has opted to raise the rates of tax on property, savings and dividend income by 2 percentage points, arguing that income from assets should bear more of the load precisely because it does not pay an NI‑equivalent. Full technical details will come through HMRC guidance, but the broad-brush picture is this:
- Landlords with taxable rental profits will see a gradual increase in the effective tax rate they pay on that income, particularly higher‑ and additional‑rate taxpayers.
- Investors with sizeable dividend and savings income will also face higher tax bills, although existing allowances are being retained to protect those with more modest amounts.
For many smaller landlords in Oxford – and in particular, those who let out their properties as individuals, rather than through the vehicle of a limited company – this will show up as a subtle erosion of net yields rather than a sudden shock – a few hundred pounds more in tax each year rather than a wholesale rewrite of their business model. Portfolio landlords and those already close to higher‑rate thresholds will feel it more keenly, especially when combined with frozen tax bands and existing restrictions on mortgage interest relief.
Several things seem likely. Many more landlords will incorporate companies; some landlords will see this another reason to exit the sector entirely; but most likely of all, landlords facing a drop in income may aim to recoup this by way of increased rent.
In other words, what the government will dress as a fair and just rebalancing will likely come to impact those renting, by way of increased monthly rent payments to make up what landlords feel they are losing.
Other general points in the Budget 2025: threshold freezes, bracket creep and affordability
Alongside these targeted changes, the government is freezing personal tax thresholds and the main employer NICs threshold for a further three years than planned, taking us into the next decade.
On paper, headline Income Tax and NI rates are unchanged; in practice, as wages rise over time, more people are pulled into higher tax bands. This so‑called “fiscal drag” is one of the biggest revenue‑raisers in the entire Budget – enough to raise £8 billion extra in tax revenue by 2029.
For the property market, although not a direct tax, this still matters, because it quietly chips away at take‑home pay. Mortgage lenders will take affordability into account, and so buyers who might otherwise have stretched for that extra bedroom or larger garden may find that, after tax and other rising costs, their monthly budget becomes too tight – and if that transpires it could result in a knock-on effect for property prices.
At the upper end of the market, where school fees, childcare and lifestyle spending are already significant, even a small reduction in disposable income can translate into more cautious borrowing decisions and longer decision times.
We are going to see this reflected in price sensitivity and affordability assessments as time moves on.
Inflation, interest rates and mortgage costs
The other side of the coin is macroeconomic stability. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects inflation to ease back towards the Bank of England’s 2% target over the next couple of years, due to measures in this Budget – particularly around energy bills, transport costs and fuel. The Bank of England frequently cites higher inflation as the reason interest rates can’t fall further; it stands to reason that as inflation is deemed likely to fall, interest rates are likely to fall also.
Someone taking out a typical two‑year fixed mortgage in late 2025 is already paying substantially less each year than they would have done in mid‑2024 – roughly the equivalent of £1,200 per year on average on a representative loan. The government’s strategy of reducing borrowing each year and building a bigger “buffer” against its fiscal rules is, in part, designed to keep gilt markets calm and avoid any repeat of the kind of volatility that previously pushed mortgage rates sharply higher… and it has to be acknowledged that gilt markets responded very favourably following the release of the OBR’s Budget report.
For buyers and movers in Oxford, the hope is that this will translate into a gentler, more predictable downward path for mortgage rates over the next few years, perhaps offsetting those stealthy tax rises, and improving affordability in the process.
So, finally… is the Budget 2025 good or bad news for Oxford?
If you felt underwhelmed on Wednesday, you weren’t alone. There is no new tax on the family home, no Stamp Duty sweeteners, no sudden Council Tax revaluation.
Instead, the impact falls mainly on:
- Owners and buyers of £2 million‑plus homes, who will face a new ongoing surcharge from 2028.
- Higher‑rate taxpayers with significant rental, dividend or savings income, who will gradually pay more on those receipts.
- Households drawn into higher tax bands over time as thresholds are frozen, subtly reducing disposable income and borrowing power.
For the population as a whole, it may end up feeling like a little extra here and there, but in many cases probably not enough to really notice in the scheme of things.
However, here in Oxford we do have to take note of the effects some are really going to feel – indeed, not an insignificant number of people.
Plenty of households, particularly in North Oxford and some of our surrounding villages, will find themselves paying £2,500 or even £7,500 extra in council tax each year from 2028 – and whilst plenty of people will roll their eyes and snip that ‘they can afford it’, you’d be surprised.
Also, in a city like Oxford that has a far higher proportion of Private Rented Sector housing – 32% of properties, compared to around 20% nationally – it hints at a very significant number of landlords, a majority of whom will be liable for this extra 2% tax on lettings income.
Nevertheless, a period of undeniable uncertainty is over. The rumours have been settled, and the pathway is clearer. Buyers and sellers who have been sitting on their hands can now move forward with much more confidence and clarity.
The next few months will reveal how quickly that renewed confidence feeds through into instructions, viewings and offers – but for now, it feels as though the market has finally been given permission to start breathing again.
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With the Autumn Budget now just days away, uncertainty remains the defining characteristic of the UK’s economic landscape. Markets have been unsettled by a string of government reversals, unusually candid pre-Budget commentary from the Chancellor (leading to further reversals!), and competing briefings from across Westminster.
Rachel Reeves admittedly faces a formidable challenge: balancing fiscal discipline with pre-election pledges, whilst facing a sizeable deficit and shaky investor confidence.
For homeowners, landlords, and would-be buyers in Oxford, the stakes feel pretty high.
Here is a concise overview of the economic backdrop and the seven Budget areas most likely to impact the local property market.
The Economic Backdrop
It’s hard to claim the economic outlook is anything other than sluggish. Here are some key points that are currently defining it:
Growth Has Stalled
The UK continues to struggle with low or near-flatlined growth. GDP grew just 0.1% between July and September, a fragile uptick following a contraction in July. Business confidence remains muted, and unemployment has risen to 4.8%, its highest since spring 2021.
Inflation Remains Stubborn, But Has Finally Eased
Inflation held at 3.8% for three months from July to September. This had already offered some relief, given market predictions that it would have reached 4% again, but now – offering some rare positive news for the Chancellor as she prepares for next Wednesday – it has dropped to 3.6% in October. This could be a sign that inflation is set on a downward path at last, but nevertheless it remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
Interest Rates on Hold
The Bank of England maintained its base rate at 4% this month, in a narrow 5–4 vote. Some analysts believed the Chancellor’s earlier hints of income tax rises might nudge the MPC toward a cut before the New Year, but the recent U-turn on tax increases dampened those expectations. Nevertheless, a Reuters poll of market analysts revealed a consensus view that rates would be cut when the MPC meets on December 17, and given the announcement that inflation has at last fallen from 3.8% to 3.6% - despite steep increases in food prices – this becomes even more likely.
In the meantime, for those borrowers out there, average Standard Variable Rates remain above 7%, with typical fixed rates closer to 5%.
Bond Markets Cautious
Ten-year gilt yields have softened to around 4.1%, signalling a modest improvement in borrowing costs, though volatility continues to be a risk factor.
The Property Market: A Mixed Picture
House Prices Rising Slowly But Behind Inflation
Nationally, property values are around 2.4% higher than a year ago, indicating modest growth that nevertheless lags behind inflation.
Asking Prices Drop
Rightmove’s October index showed rising asking prices, but November brought a sharper-than-expected 1.8% fall, exceeding the usual seasonal dip. Asking prices aren’t the same as completed sales, but it is an unsettling trend.
Landlords Under Strain
Nearly four in ten landlords are said to be considering a full or partial exit from the market, according to a survey by specialist lender Landbay, reported in the Landlord Today magazine, with tax pressures, regulation, and rising costs chipping away at yields.
North–South Divide Widens
The disconnect between regions persists. Whilst parts of the North and Midlands are seeing growth, London and the South East have seen drops by as much as 10% in some areas.
Oxford’s Unique Position
Local ONS data shows that sold prices in Oxford have remained broadly flat over the past 12 months. Rightmove’s House Price Index, however, shows a fall in asking prices, around 10% year-on-year. It really demonstrates that many property listings are overpriced, with seller’s expectations running ambitiously ahead of what buyers are really willing to pay.
Seven Budget Areas Oxford Homeowners and Landlords Should Watch
With a focus on how the Budget might affect property matters, here are seven areas we believe homeowners, landlords and buyers should keep an eye on next week, especially here in Oxford.
1. Stamp Duty Overhaul
Speculation continues that stamp duty could be significantly reformed. Options reportedly under review include:
- replacing the one-off charge with an annual tax on high-value homes
- spreading payments over several years
- scrapping SDLT entirely in favour of land value taxes or higher council tax bands
Oxford, with an average sold price of around £502,000, would feel any such changes keenly. High-value regions like London, the South East, and Oxfordshire are likely targets for revenue-raising reforms.
2. Council Tax Revaluation and New Upper Bands
Council tax is based on 1991 valuations, and the Treasury is under growing pressure to modernise the system. The Budget may introduce:
- new, higher bands for premium properties
- adjustments to reflect up-to-date values
- more flexibility for local authorities
For many Oxford households, especially in North and Central Oxford, Summertown, Jericho and Headington, this could mean materially higher annual charges.
3. Capital Gains Tax Changes
While a full CGT charge on primary residences is unlikely, modifications to Principal Private Residence Relief have been floated. Options include:
- a gains threshold above which CGT is payable (e.g., £1.5m+)
- increased CGT rates
- lower tax-free allowances for investment property
Landlords looking to dispose of assets, or homeowners with high-value properties, should take note.
4. Income Tax, National Insurance and VAT
The widely expected income tax rises have been shelved… for now. In their place, the Chancellor may opt for “stealth taxes”, including:
- extended freezes to thresholds (“fiscal drag”)
- a possible uplift in VAT
- higher National Insurance contributions
- and, critically, NI applied to rental income, affecting around 360,000 landlords and reducing some yields by up to 10%
The fiscal gap remains large, and little is genuinely off the table.
5. Inheritance Tax and Other Wealth Taxes
Inheritance Tax could see tightened thresholds or higher rates, while broader wealth taxes may also be under consideration.
These measures would be designed to target the top end of the market, likely to affect Oxford more than many other regions.
6. Landlord Regulation and Renters’ Rights
The Renters’ Rights Act and Making Tax Digital will increase compliance burdens for landlords in the coming year. Budgets often include incentives or ‘sweeteners’, and this year that might include relief for insulation or green improvements, in an attempt to woo landlords to stay in the market in the face of tighter regulation, rising costs and squeezed margins.
Landlords reviewing portfolio strategy should watch closely for any transitional arrangements or new reliefs.
7. Mortgage Market Measures and Buyer Support
There is also speculation that the Chancellor may revisit mortgage support mechanisms, particularly for first-time buyers. Options reported in recent commentary include tweaks to guarantee schemes, adjustments to affordability assessments, or targeted assistance for low-deposit borrowers. While major intervention is unlikely, even modest adjustments can influence demand at the lower and middle ends of the market – and in a place like Oxford where affordability is a perennial issue for our younger buyers, this could spell some positive news.
Final Thoughts for Oxford Homeowners and Landlords
This is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable Budgets in recent years. Policy U-turns, market sensitivity and political pressure create a volatile environment where even last-minute decisions can have material consequences.
For landlords, a combination of regulatory tightening and potential tax rises could reshape yield calculations. For homeowners, particularly in higher-value Oxford postcodes, changes to stamp duty, CGT or council tax could be financially significant.
At Cherry Picked Residential, we will stay tuned to every Budget development and bring you practical, local guidance, so stay tuned to our social media channels for any further updates. We will also be releasing a follow-up piece once the final details are known next Wednesday.
The market may move fast after next week’s Budget, and indeed it may well move unpredictably.
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Is It Time to Extend the Stamp Duty Holiday? We say YES!
By Ajay Kumar, Managing Director, Cherry Picked Residential
After a year that saw the Oxford property market go through a series of peaks and troughs, Oxford is now firmly experiencing a mini-boom. It's fantastic to see properties in the city and in Wantage, Abingdon, Aylesbury and Bicester being brought to market and sold so quickly.
Much of this upturn in the Oxford property sector is down to the Stamp Duty holiday announced by Chancellor Rishi Sunak back in July 2020 to help stimulate the market during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Essentially, the Stamp Duty holiday, which runs until the end of March, means that Stamp Duty isn’t triggered on residential property up to the value of £500,000. So, the first £500,000 of any property purchase is exempt from the tax. For the past few months, this has been saving Oxfordshire buyers up to £15,000.
And what a break this has been for those wanting to buy a new home in Oxford – not to mention a great shot in the arm for the property market! We have seen our house sales pipeline increase considerably, and this is backed up by data from the Rightmove property website:
“Sold prices in Oxford over the last year were 11% up on the previous year and 7% up on the 2018 peak of £510,855”.
These are undoubtedly absolutely fantastic figures. But there’s a problem. And it’s a significant one.
The temporary Stamp Duty holiday is set to come to an end on the 31st March.
With pandemic restrictions continuing there have been calls to extend the Stamp Duty holiday. Yet, despite an online petition being signed by more than 116,000 people and therefore meeting the requirements for it to be discussed in Parliament, Leader of the House Jacob Rees-Mogg has disappointingly suspended the use of Westminster Hall, which is where debates on petitions like this are held.
The petition calls for the Stamp Duty holiday to be extended for an additional six months to help buyers looking to move and help stabilise the housing market.
Because the petition was signed by more than 100,000 people, the Government had to respond, and this is what they said:
“The SDLT holiday was designed to be a temporary relief to stimulate market activity and support jobs that rely on the property market. The Government does not plan to extend this temporary relief.”
At Cherry Picked Residential, we whole-heartedly agree with the petition and have indeed signed it. We disagree that the Stamp Duty holiday should end in a few months, quite simply because an extension would be an incredible boost for the property sector and the broader economy.
We are calling for a rethink.
The effect on home-movers in Oxford is plain to see. We have heard from many clients, particularly those reliant on factors other than property chains, such as those looking to move into a new build, who said:
“I am looking to move into a new build which is currently due to complete at the start of March 2021. If this build is delayed past 31st March 2021 and does not complete, then I will not be able to afford the additional cost of the Stamp Duty, so will not be able to afford the house.”
The significance of the end of the Stamp Duty holiday is worrying too for those in Oxford with purchases delayed through no fault of their own, for example, due to conveyancing hold-ups.
Should the Stamp Duty holiday end, we are likely to hear the sound of the economy stalling. And not one of us wants that to happen.
Currently, there are many instances of personal circumstances where vendors are in a position where they have to sell – which is why it's a good thing that the property industry has been allowed to remain open. By staying open, we are supporting the local economy, but of course, it’s a fine line as we must ensure our clients' health as a priority.
Estate agents up and down the country are following the guidelines and operating in a COVID-safe fashion. We practice social distancing, sanitise (or wear gloves) and wear masks, as well as ensuring all potential buyers follow the strict guidelines, whilst make sure viewings are by appointment only.
We try to make sure that viewings are by those who are ready to move so that we reduce the number of people on the roads and don’t carry out unnecessary viewings.
The estate agency business is mostly a responsible industry made up of fantastic property professionals just like us, who put our clients first, do a great job and get people moving.
So, at Cherry Picked Residential, here’s our view;
“We believe that an extension to the current stamp duty relief would allow essential transactions to continue and sustain buoyancy in the local market, particularly for those where personal circumstances require them to sell. The industry is under increasing pressure with existing transactions meeting the current deadline whilst anchoring property prices until a decision is announced.”
There is no doubt, in our opinion, that the Stamp Duty holiday has helped Oxford’s property market boom. Oxfordshire has a resilient property market and as seen in previous times will persevere and can even flourish. By taking this relief away the impact may slow the property market but the effect on the wider economy will be greater felt.
We need the momentum to continue as we move into spring. The Oxford economy and the wider national economy needs it.
We believe that estate agents can operate in such a way as to support it, playing our part in the success stories that we all need to hear.
And it’s not just us. Other sectors are rooting for the Stamp Duty holiday to be extended too. Conveyancers are seeing unprecedented amounts of work, but it’s potentially challenging for them to meet the 31st March deadline for movers because so many offices are closed, and land searches are taking longer than usual to complete.
While it’s unlikely that if an extension is announced by the Chancellor, it will not be infinite, even a short extension will allow more people to take advantage of the substantial saving and keep the Oxford housing market buoyant into spring and beyond.
