The housing market is said to run to all sorts of cycles – from weekly cycles to 7-year cycles to 21-year cycles, and everything in between.
But when it comes to its annual cycle, the early New Year period is often one of the busiest – driven in no small part by ‘New Year’s Resolution sellers’.
These sellers are a mix of those who have just made the spontaneous decision to ‘do it’ over the festive period, and those who intended to make the move last year but didn’t.
Either way, this ‘let’s get moving’ resolution typically comes from having had the benefit of time off, with space and time to think, or perhaps to chat as a couple or with family, often during long wintry walks or cosy evenings in front of the fire. It becomes a moment when those “what if we…?” conversations more easily become “let’s do it!”
If these are people who sound like you, you’re not alone. January is always busy for this reason.
But this year, the early-2026 market is shaping up to be much more active than we would expect from a typical January bounce.
The property market always wakes up in January, but in 2026, there’s extra fuel.
Every year, the final few weeks of autumn into the final run-in to Christmas bring a natural slowdown to the property market. It’s not just that the nights draw in and the weather takes a turn, but also because people simply become busy and distracted. Viewings become harder to coordinate. Finally, decision-making becomes very much: “let’s think about it in the New Year”.
This is the normal rhythm of the end-of-year market, which then causes a natural swell in early January, once the festivities are out of the way.
That’s all going on this year, too, but here’s what’s different: the number of people who didn’t act when they usually would have done in the earlier autumn – that period after the school holiday finishes, which generally sees a strong spike in market activity, and which usually runs through to the last days of autumn.
That spike didn’t happen this time, at least not to the same degree as we’d have expected. The autumn market just didn’t come back to life as normal.
Nevertheless, just because people didn’t move, doesn’t mean they didn’t want to.
Why the autumn market didn’t bounce in 2025
Most years, in overly simple terms, autumn brings a second wave of annual activity.
The first wave is the longer, steady peak that builds through January to June, before dropping away in the Summer. Then, in autumn, the property market picks up again – usually a sharper and steeper peak, and shorter-lasting – we tend to get a busy September and October, before dropping off in the autumn half-term week, or, in some years, eking through till mid- to late November.
But in 2025, uncertainty did what uncertainty tends to do: it caused people to press the pause button.
Essentially, what we got in 2025 was a game of two halves. Rightmove numbers show that while the first half of 2025 saw new sellers up 9% and buyer demand up 3% versus 2024, fuelled by the end of the stamp duty holiday in March, the second half of the year reversed to -4% new sellers and -6% demand, as people waited to see what would come from a late-November Budget.
In fact, the 2025 annual data shows higher numbers for new listings, gross sales and net sales than any year since 2017, except for 2021 (the post-lockdown year).
The fact that this is the case despite that slowdown in activity in the second half of the year shows just how front-loaded the property market year was. It’s enough to give pause for thought when you consider just how high the numbers might have been were it not for the delayed Budget, which put so many people off after the summer.
The reality is, however, that if people didn’t move in the second half of last year, it doesn’t mean that they didn’t wish to do so, nor indeed that they won’t. Many have merely delayed proceedings – and the New Year now presents a tempting moment to resume matters.
Affordability breeds confidence, and both are improving.
Another factor adding fuel is affordability improvements.
Confidence is a peculiar thing in property. It can be flying, or it can be fragile, and it can take very little for the market to suddenly shift up or down a gear in the space of days – even hours!
Over the last month and a half, we’ve felt a tangible change in market confidence, for a couple of reasons:
- Firstly, Rachel Reeves’ autumn Budget had loomed like a spectre over the market and gripped businesses and the public alike due to the thought of tax increases that looked set to dent affordability. Nevertheless, although tax increases were observed, particularly the ‘Mansion Tax’ affecting households with properties valued above £2 million, the effect on most people was ultimately negligible compared to what had been predicted.
- The second factor driving improved confidence comes from The Bank of England cutting its Base Rate by 0.25% to 3.75% on 18 December 2025. Not only this, but it has said that rates are likely to be “on a gradual downward path”, i.e., still likely to fall further, although it depends on inflation and other factors (Bank of England)
Actually, here in Oxford, property values have averaged £505,000 over the past year according to ONS data, so like most of the UK, the majority of homeowners here will escape the so-called ‘Mansion Tax’ due to kick in in 2028. Nevertheless, that is not true of the whole city. In North Oxford, in places like Summertown, Park Town and Kingston Manor, it is not so very unusual to see homes valued in excess of £2 million – so there will be some effect to be seen at that end of the market as we get closer to the 2028 implementation.
That said, the general sense of relief felt after Budget Day by the majority market here, still being over two years away from tax rises that will affect the minority in that regard, and coupled with the boost that lower interest rates typically bring to the market, has all been enough to move the needle in the right direction.
Big lenders are already cutting mortgage rates.
The effect on mortgages has already been felt. Moneyfacts data reported by MoneyWeek puts the average two-year fixed at 4.81% as of 5 January 2026 (MoneyWeek). Some mortgage rates have now even dropped below 3.5%.
Those particular types of deals are not necessarily common or easy-to-access mortgages, however. What matters more is how we see the general mortgage market behave, because what we typically see at the start of a rate-cutting cycle is a bit of competitive momentum.
And this is something we are already aware of.
HSBC became the first big UK lender to cut mortgage rates in 2026, following December’s base rate cut, with reductions across residential and buy-to-let products (The Guardian).
As we would expect, that has not happened in isolation; other mainstream banks and lenders are already following or set to follow suit.
When big names start moving, other smaller and specialist lenders tend to respond in kind, and that can fan the flames of burgeoning market confidence. This fuels buyer demand – as well as seller belief.
It all makes for a positive coming together of various factors: ‘New Year’s Resolution’ home-moving activity, a post-Budget sense of relief, improved affordability and finally an artificial swelling of listing numbers, brought on from delayed autumn movers.
This is why there is an expectation for an even more pronounced early-year property market bounce in 2026 – including here in Oxford.
How to make your move in Oxford happen in 2026
If you are one of those people who made the decision over Christmas to move home this year, now is a great time to seize the day and turn that resolution into momentum – whether the move is set for the beginning, middle or even the end of the year.
Here are three steps to think about now to reduce stress and improve results later:
1) Get your timeline straight
Whenever you are hoping to move this year, work backwards from that target date. It might already be the right time to start preparing – even if the plan is to move home later in the year.
The sooner you can get wheels in motion, the better. It often surprises people that sales can take six months or more here in Oxford; the conveyancing process is currently taking almost four months here on average – even when everything goes according to plan. At Cherry Picked Residential, our average time from listing a new property for sale to getting a sale agreed, as well the time it takes to see the transaction itself through the legal process, are both better than the local market averages.
That said, it can only make sense to get your property ready and fix any minor problems ahead of time.
There is also no harm in planning a date for photos in advance. Drawing up a clear timeline stops the year from disappearing in a blur and later rushing to play catch-up.
2) Price your Oxford home sensibly and realistically
Buyers may be more active, but they are still price-conscious. Rightmove’s December Housing Index Report noted that sellers still need “tempting prices” to attract attention, as there is plenty of choice for buyers online. (Rightmove)
Mortgage rates are improving, which means affordability is easing – but whilst the temptation might be to push prices up as a result, buyers are likely to remain fairly cautious. General market expectations for price movement this year are similar to what was borne out last year – perhaps rising by 2% over the course of the whole year.
In Oxford, that would be around the £10,000, based on that local average property value mentioned earlier, £505,000 (Office for National Statistics (ONS)).
3) Presentation and great property marketing are key
If a busier market means more properties for sale, you will be competing for attention – even if there are more buyers out there.
It is something to take on board for photography and viewings. Try not to be tempted to cut corners when it comes to marketing.
A final thought
If you’ve decided over the festive period that 2026 is the year you make your move, you’re in good company.
The market isn’t just waking up – it’s already showered, dressed and bouncing round the breakfast table.
That blanket of stress that had seemed to drape itself over the market last year feels to have been at least rolled back, even if not entirely folded up and put away in the airing cupboard. Affordability is improving, with interest rates down and set to fall further, according to the Bank of England itself.
The “wait and see” attitude that many had been harbouring seems to be quickly turning into “let’s get moving”.
If you want to move this year in Oxford, we would love to help out – whether you are selling a home, buying a home, or both.
Please get in touch with the Cherry Picked Residential team, and let’s plan what your next move looks like.
