TL;DR – The Autumn Budget 2025 at a glance:

• No Stamp Duty changes
• No CGT changes on main residences
• New High Value Council Tax Surcharge (homes £2m+)
• +2% on property/dividend/savings income that will hit landlords
• Threshold freezes = reduced affordability over time

After all the rumour-milling and second‑guessing, Rachel Reeves finally stepped up to deliver her Autumn Budget on Wednesday.

A series of leaks and reversals in the weeks and months leading to this moment might have left us all feeling trepidatious about what was coming. That, indeed, was how many had felt; it was what the news was reporting; it was perhaps even what Reeves herself, were we feeling cynical, may have been hoping for.

But then the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) - essentially the Treasury watchdog - bounded in feet first, with just 45 minutes to spare, and dropped its Budget forecast online for the world to start wading through – to all intents and purposes confirming many if not all of the key measures that Reeves was set to announce.

It really was an almost farcical occurrence, were this whole affair not already starting to seem like something of a pantomime, with a pre-Budget Prime Minister’s Questions taken off mainstream news channels in favour of panels of experts telling us all what Rachel Reeves was about to say!

When she did eventually stand up, her irritation – or indeed, her outright outrage – was so palpable as to be barely concealed.

Some leaks are less acceptable than others, it would seem.

What came next felt like something akin to a slow exhale. Homeowners, landlords and would‑be movers – not to mention business owners, and that includes estate and letting agents – had been bracing for any number of major tax hikes on property, perhaps along with the odd rabbit pulled from the hat that might act as a catalyst for greater market activity.

We wrote about it ourselves last week – the fears of stakeholders, the effect it was having on a market that was essentially ‘waiting to see’, our own views on what might come through based on the speculation and commentary that had built up in the days and weeks prior.

The headline, however, is that the sweeping changes many feared did not materialise – not for property. No sign of rabbits either.

It was so tempting to put something out immediately – a ‘nothing to see here!’ article, ‘now let’s move on.’

Nevertheless, there are some important points to have come from the Budget announcement, with some winners and indeed some losers – and not least, in a way that could play its part in a marketplace such as Oxford.​

So, with the benefit of some time to mull this all over, here is our take on what was actually said, what didn’t transpire, and what it all means for homeowners, landlords, buyers and tenants, here in the city of dreaming spires.

The build‑up: uncertainty and a stalled upper market

In the run‑up to the Budget, the property market – particularly at the mid‑to‑upper end – was gripped by speculation. Rumours of Capital Gains Tax being extended to main residences, historic reforms to Stamp Duty – even suggestions of outright abolition – and a wholesale rebanding of Council Tax all conspired to create a “wait and see” mood, and naturally it slowed down the market.

This was only intensified when the Budget date was announced, pushing it to late November. Many higher‑value transactions simply went on hold; other homeowners with a mind to come to the market after the summer holiday, simply did not.

For estate agents, it has felt like weeks of conversations with somewhat nervous sellers and buyers who have ping-ponged between debilitating caution and eager optimism, all wondering if they were about to be hit with a new wave of property taxes or gifted a windfall in the form of stamp duty removal.​

As the day of the Budget announcement drew closer, the media unsurprisingly fanned the flames of expectation and hesitation – which is why, whilst significant in places, it all felt like something of an anti‑climax.

That said, there were a couple of key changes, and they could come to have some real impact on the shape of the market in Oxford – perhaps more than other places.

The non‑events: what didn’t change in the Autumn Budget 2025

The most important part of this Budget for many local homeowners is what stayed the same. Despite intense lobbying and speculation, there are no changes to Stamp Duty on residential purchases. No cliff edge, as we’ve seen before. But no relief for buyers – something many hoped for, which may have stalled transactions and prevented new sales being agreed in the numbers we would expect to see in the normally busy autumn.

Likewise, no new Capital Gains Tax measures aimed at main residences – a worry for many owners and would-be sellers of more expensive homes.

There is also no wholesale revaluation or rebanding of Council Tax... but we will expand on this in the next section.​

There is also no new National Insurance charge on rental income, which Pre‑Budget briefings had suggested was firmly on the table as a way to “equalise” tax on work and wealth… but again, not is all as it seems here, and we will go into more detail on this a bit later, too.

 A “Mansion Tax”: High Value Council Tax Surcharge

When it came to key measures affecting property directly, there were only really two – and one of these is the introduction of what amounts to a so-called ‘Mansion Tax’. From 2028, following a rebanding exercise to identify the most valuable properties, there will be a new High Value Council Tax Surcharge on properties worth over £2 million.

The policy is framed as a fairness measure. It was pointed out by the BBC that in places like Darlington in the North East of England, a typical Band D home currently triggers more Council Tax than a £10 million property might do in Mayfair. It is an issue that was bound to be addressed – and let’s face it, this particular example probably should be.

The surcharge will be tiered, with an entry‑level charge of £2,500 per year for homes valued at £2 million to £5 million, rising to £7,500 for properties above that. We have to recognise that there are significant numbers of £2 million‑plus homes in parts of Oxford – notably north Oxford, OX2 postcodes including Summertown, Jericho and Walton Manor, and surrounding villages like Boars Hill.

Not only that, but whilst the fact that it is due to come in during 2028 offers owners of these homes some respite, for now, it does also mean that plenty of properties are likely to creep up and pass that threshold over the course of these next couple of years – and it may be that, in the same way as stamp duty thresholds can create something of a cliff-edge, properties at these price points may struggle to achieve offers above them.​

In Oxford, we could certainly expect to see concerns about this effect feed into how higher‑value homes are marketed. Clear communication about ongoing annual costs will become more important.

Higher tax for landlords on property, savings and dividend income

Many had expected the Chancellor to impose NI on landlords; she hasn’t. But she has achieved a similar effect. Instead of using National Insurance as the mechanism to tax this sector, Reeves has opted to raise the rates of tax on property, savings and dividend income by 2 percentage points, arguing that income from assets should bear more of the load precisely because it does not pay an NI‑equivalent. Full technical details will come through HMRC guidance, but the broad-brush picture is this:​

• Landlords with taxable rental profits will see a gradual increase in the effective tax rate they pay on that income, particularly higher‑ and additional‑rate taxpayers.
• Investors with sizeable dividend and savings income will also face higher tax bills, although existing allowances are being retained to protect those with more modest amounts.

For many smaller landlords in Oxford – and in particular, those who let out their properties as individuals, rather than through the vehicle of a limited company – this will show up as a subtle erosion of net yields rather than a sudden shock – a few hundred pounds more in tax each year rather than a wholesale rewrite of their business model. Portfolio landlords and those already close to higher‑rate thresholds will feel it more keenly, especially when combined with frozen tax bands and existing restrictions on mortgage interest relief.

Several things seem likely. Many more landlords will incorporate companies; some landlords will see this another reason to exit the sector entirely; but most likely of all, landlords facing a drop in income may aim to recoup this by way of increased rent.

In other words, what the government will dress as a fair and just rebalancing will likely come to impact those renting, by way of increased monthly rent payments to make up what landlords feel they are losing.

Other general points in the Budget 2025: threshold freezes, bracket creep and affordability

Alongside these targeted changes, the government is freezing personal tax thresholds and the main employer NICs threshold for a further three years than planned, taking us into the next decade.

On paper, headline Income Tax and NI rates are unchanged; in practice, as wages rise over time, more people are pulled into higher tax bands. This so‑called “fiscal drag” is one of the biggest revenue‑raisers in the entire Budget – enough to raise £8 billion extra in tax revenue by 2029.​

For the property market, although not a direct tax, this still matters, because it quietly chips away at take‑home pay. Mortgage lenders will take affordability into account, and so buyers who might otherwise have stretched for that extra bedroom or larger garden may find that, after tax and other rising costs, their monthly budget becomes too tight – and if that transpires it could result in a knock-on effect for property prices.

At the upper end of the market, where school fees, childcare and lifestyle spending are already significant, even a small reduction in disposable income can translate into more cautious borrowing decisions and longer decision times.​

We are going to see this reflected in price sensitivity and affordability assessments as time moves on. 

Inflation, interest rates and mortgage costs

The other side of the coin is macroeconomic stability. The Office for Budget Responsibility expects inflation to ease back towards the Bank of England’s 2% target over the next couple of years, due to measures in this Budget – particularly around energy bills, transport costs and fuel. The Bank of England frequently cites higher inflation as the reason interest rates can’t fall further; it stands to reason that as inflation is deemed likely to fall, interest rates are likely to fall also.

Someone taking out a typical two‑year fixed mortgage in late 2025 is already paying substantially less each year than they would have done in mid‑2024 – roughly the equivalent of £1,200 per year on average on a representative loan. The government’s strategy of reducing borrowing each year and building a bigger “buffer” against its fiscal rules is, in part, designed to keep gilt markets calm and avoid any repeat of the kind of volatility that previously pushed mortgage rates sharply higher… and it has to be acknowledged that gilt markets responded very favourably following the release of the OBR’s Budget report.

For buyers and movers in Oxford, the hope is that this will translate into a gentler, more predictable downward path for mortgage rates over the next few years, perhaps offsetting those stealthy tax rises, and improving affordability in the process.

So, finally… is the Budget 2025 good or bad news for Oxford?

If you felt underwhelmed on Wednesday, you weren’t alone. There is no new tax on the family home, no Stamp Duty sweeteners, no sudden Council Tax revaluation.​

Instead, the impact falls mainly on:

• Owners and buyers of £2 million‑plus homes, who will face a new ongoing surcharge from 2028.
• Higher‑rate taxpayers with significant rental, dividend or savings income, who will gradually pay more on those receipts.
• Households drawn into higher tax bands over time as thresholds are frozen, subtly reducing disposable income and borrowing power.

For the population as a whole, it may end up feeling like a little extra here and there, but in many cases probably not enough to really notice in the scheme of things.

However, here in Oxford we do have to take note of the effects some are really going to feel – indeed, not an insignificant number of people.

Plenty of households, particularly in North Oxford and some of our surrounding villages, will find themselves paying £2,500 or even £7,500 extra in council tax each year from 2028 – and whilst plenty of people will roll their eyes and snip that ‘they can afford it’, you’d be surprised.

Also, in a city like Oxford that has a far higher proportion of Private Rented Sector housing – 32% of properties, compared to around 20% nationally – it hints at a very significant number of landlords, a majority of whom will be liable for this extra 2% tax on lettings income.

Nevertheless, a period of undeniable uncertainty is over. The rumours have been settled, and the pathway is clearer. Buyers and sellers who have been sitting on their hands can now move forward with much more confidence and clarity.

The next few months will reveal how quickly that renewed confidence feeds through into instructions, viewings and offers – but for now, it feels as though the market has finally been given permission to start breathing again.