What is shaping property market activity in Oxford in May 2026?
The first phase of the long-awaited and much-discussed Renters Rights Act came into force on May 1, 2026.
As many in the industry anticipated, April saw a notable uptick in Section 21 notices – that is, landlords serving notice to reclaim possession of their property before the legislative window closed, as reported by The Guardian this week. We don’t know the exact numbers yet – but we do know that the Citizens Advice Bureau reported a 16% uptick in cases they were helping tenants with in March.
Some of that has translated directly into sales instructions, as landlords choose to exit rather than adapt. Here in Oxford, that has contributed to a current total listings figure of 1,978 homes for sale – 405 of which came online in just the last month.
1,978 homes for sale in Oxford is quite possibly a historic high. It is certainly higher than at any point since January 2020, which is as far back as we can analyse using Dataloft.
But nevertheless, it doesn’t necessarily point to a swell of ex-rentals coming to market. In fact, 405 listings last month was 1.5% lower than new listings this time last year.
And indeed, as it transpires, the much-feared mass exodus has not materialised. The majority of landlords, having weighed up the new landscape, have decided to stay in the market.
That decision is not hard to understand when you look at the numbers. The surge of Section 21 activity has displaced a wave of tenants simultaneously, and with fewer available properties chasing more renters, competition in the lettings market is fierce. Average rents in Oxford now stand at £1,840 per month. That is an 11% increase in just 12 months – and upward pressure shows no sign of easing.
For landlords, that translates to a current yield of 5.39%. There are not many asset classes right now offering that kind of return, particularly when combined with the prospect of long-term capital growth.
The investment case for buy-to-let, far from collapsing under the weight of new regulation, looks attractive on paper – something that professional investors are capitalising on; professional, as opposed to accidental or, for want of a better word, amateur.
On the residential sales side of things, the conversation this week has been influenced by last Thursday's Bank of England decision. The Monetary Policy Committee voted, as expected, to hold the base rate at 3.75%. The vote was 8–1, with the majority holding firm whilst one known-to-be-hawkish member pushed for a 0.25% increase, arguing that inflation risks remained underpriced. Perhaps of note, no doves were pushing for a rate cut – only for a hold.
The consensus view among analysts is that one or two cuts are still on the table for this year, but that view has become considerably less certain in recent weeks.
Much of that uncertainty flows from the oil markets and the ongoing situation in Iran. The phrase "Trumpflation" has entered the analyst vocabulary, and Moneyfacts published modelling this week that puts the picture in stark terms: in a worst-case scenario, where oil remains at $120 per barrel for an extended period, the base rate could climb as high as 5.25%, implying average mortgage rates of around 6.75% if historical patterns hold.
That said, Moneyfacts are clear that this is an extreme scenario, not a forecast. Their central expectation is more measured: inflation peaking at around 3.7% this year, before falling back towards 3% by autumn 2027.
It is undeniably a spanner in the works, however. Earlier this year the trajectory on inflation looked genuinely encouraging, and lenders were beginning to price accordingly. The mood has shifted. But, it has not collapsed. Mortgage markets tend to move ahead of the Bank of England. The expectation in most quarters is that even if the base rate ticks slightly higher, lending rates will begin to soften before the inflationary peak is reached, as markets price in the anticipated downward path.
Some well-regarded house price forecasters have trimmed their expectations for growth this year as a result. Knight Frank’s Tom Bill, for instance, has revised his 2026 price growth forecast from 2% down to 1.5% for 2026. But a downward revision in projected growth is not the same thing as a prediction of a falling market; it is still growth after all, just a little less of it than expected.
Which brings us back to Oxford. The average property price here currently stands at £486,496, representing annual growth of 2% over the past twelve months. More telling than prices, however, is transaction activity: 1,302 sales have been recorded in Oxford over the past 12 months, which is a 17% decline in sales volume.
The 12-month figure might be a little depressed compared to the previous 12 months, but we should constantly remind ourselves that we no longer have March 2025 in the 12-month tally. March 2025 saw a staggering number of transactions go through as people rushed to get ahead of the end of the Stamp Duty Holiday on March 31 last year. When we say ‘staggering’, we mean it; 224 sales recorded in Oxford in that month alone. To put it into perspective, there were 193 transactions in Oxford so far this year to date.
224 sales in a single month is a huge outlier and inevitably distorts the wider data.
The past three months alone have actually seen £136,000,000 of property transactions. As we move into May, with the longer days and the traditional second wind of the spring selling season, given the increasing number of new listings available, the picture here is of a local market that is doing considerably better than the national mood music might suggest. Buyers are active. Serious sellers are achieving their moves. The conditions exist for a genuinely productive Q2.
A Final Thought
At Cherry Picked Residential, none of this changes the fundamentals of what we do. Our job – now as always – is to understand our sellers and what they need to achieve, and to know our buyers well enough to match the best of them to the right property.
Markets do change, up and down. Interest rate decisions come and go. Inflation plays a role in setting the mood music and affects affordability.
But the craft of matching the right buyer to the right home does not alter. With sales in Oxford performing as they are, we head into May with real momentum, and every expectation of helping our clients continue to move home.
But it is positive to see the landscape looking a little less rocky and the road ahead less bumpy as we move more deeply into this busy spring period.
