March 19, 2026
The Monetary Policy Committee has voted to hold the Bank of England Base Rate at 3.75%. This was not a surprise. But before anyone rushes to write this up as an economic setback, it is worth noting that the property market itself remains in better shape than headlines suggest.
* * *
Just a month ago, there was very little question whether rates would fall at this meeting – it was more a case of pondering how many more times they might be cut this year.
Inflation was retreating faster than most economists had forecast. Energy prices had eased. Food prices were starting to come down. On the housing front, mortgage rates were dropping sharply as swap rates fell, and sub 4% deals were becoming widely available. Confidence was visibly returning.
Rightmove reported the largest jump in asking prices for the month of January in its 25 years of tracking the market – a 2.8% rise, equivalent to nearly £10,000 on the average UK home, the average value of which rose beyond £300,000 for the first time in history according to the Halifax Index – albeit, sold price data from the ONS was more reserved, showing average property values of sold properties to be at just over £273,000.
In any case, the mood was becoming cautiously optimistic. Not euphoric; in many ways, the market has learned its lessons. Nevertheless, the general market outlook seemed measurably better. The trajectory felt clear.
Then geopolitics intervened.
________________________________________
How We Got Here
Conflict in the Middle East has sent oil and gas prices sharply higher over recent weeks. Energy costs, which had been one of the good-news stories in the inflation picture, have quickly swung in the wrong direction again.
This has all fed directly into the forecasts that the Monetary Policy Committee uses to make its decisions, forecasts which have therefore changed materially between the February meeting and today's.
The result of today’s vote was predictable, and financial markets had anticipated it. By the beginning of this week, the implied probability of a rate hold had risen to around 80% - almost the opposite of where odds for a cut had been around four weeks previously. This hold was, in the language of traders, ‘nailed on’ – and so the conversations we have been having with movers over the past three weeks has reflected this expectation.
Swap rates, which underpin the fixed-rate mortgages that most buyers and landlords rely on, had already headed up, and so lenders began repricing.
Moneyfactscompare.co.uk reported earlier this week that the average shelf life of mortgage products has dropped to just 14 days, as lenders have scrambled to reprice ahead of further uncertainty. A further announcement from Moneyfacts just a day or two later has suggested that 4% mortgage deals are set to disappear from the market entirely. In fact, property data site Dataloft has reported that average 5-year fixed mortgage rates are already back to 4% and inching upwards.
So yes – in line with the narrative we have seen building over the past three to four weeks, base rate cuts were held on Thursday 19 March, 2026. A consequence of global events outside anyone's control, priced in before the MPC cast its votes.
________________________________________
The Message for Homeowners and Landlords in Oxford
Despite the economic headwinds the country is facing, there is an important message to still underline: the fundamentals of the property market remain robust.
When this sort of geopolitical tensions, energy price shocks and mortgage market caution come together, it is natural to feel uncertain. But the data we are seeing in the property market tells a story that the headlines are not.
New listings – that is to say, properties being brought to market for sale – are running at almost exactly the same level as 2025 on a year-to-date basis. That comparison is notable because 2025's first quarter was unusually active, driven by buyers and sellers aiming to capitalise on demand ahead of the stamp duty holiday deadline, which was expiring on March 31, 2025.
If we strip out that distortion, the picture becomes even more striking: new listings are running 9% ahead of the same point in 2024, and approximately 20% above the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average. Confidence in the market has been strong and remains intact.
Transaction volumes tell the same story. Over 220,000 sales have already been agreed across the UK this year. Against 2024, that is 9% higher. Against the 2017-2019 pre-pandemic average, it is 18% higher. These are not the numbers of a market in distress, and even if there has been some caution brought in by recent events and mortgage market hardening, the overall sentiment is still currently positive, and as a whole, that sentiment won’t change quickly.
________________________________________
What About Mortgage Rates?
This is a legitimate concern that shouldn’t be dismissed. The repricing of mortgage products is real, and we are witnessing it happening in real time. Borrowers coming to the end of fixed terms in the next few months will face a different landscape than they had probably been looking forward to, hoping to benefit from the rate-cutting cycle that appeared to be accelerating earlier in the year.
But perspective matters. Rates are not showing signs of returning to the peaks of late 2022 and 2023 at this stage. The Base Rate remains at 3.75%, 75 points lower than it was twelve months ago.
The direction of downward travel has been disrupted, undeniably, but it has not reversed permanently. Most credible forecasters still expect cuts over the course of this year, albeit on a slower timeline than was anticipated in January.
For buyers who can be flexible on timing, perhaps there is some reason to be patient.
But – and it is a significant ‘but’ – it is important to remember how much better rates are today than they were eighteen months ago. For those who do wish to move now, and certainly anyone who needs to move, the mortgage products now available – even repriced products – are considerably more affordable than what was on offer then.
________________________________________
Our View
The property market story in 2026 is not yet written. That said, the opening chapters are much better than the mood music might suggest. Rightmove data, recorded transaction figures, the volume of new instructions… these are not the statistics of a market that has lost its nerve.
Global uncertainty does become an active, almost tangible modifier of markets, and the immediate impact on mortgage pricing is evident. Nevertheless, the desire of people to buy, sell, and let property in this country is equally real — and the numbers show it has not gone away – swelling, in fact, after a depressed second half of 2025, caused largely by uncertainty over what was coming in the Autumn Budget.
________________________________________
What Next for the Property Market?
The groundswell of activity seen in the early part of this year means the market enters this period of uncertainty from a position of genuine strength. That is important. It means the wheels are not showing signs of being likely to come off.
But it would be naïve to pretend that economic conditions will not become trickier in the months ahead, and those thinking of selling should of course factor that into their thinking – particularly if they themselves are under financial pressure. On the other hand, sometimes moving home is the solution to relieve financial pressure, and there is every reason to still look at this as a viable option – because there are certainly buyers for your home out there.
Vendors do need to be thoughtful about asking prices. Over-ambition at the point of listing is the surest way to watch a property sit on the market as buyer confidence wavers. Buyers remain active – our own numbers confirm that, even before we turn to Dataloft for analytics. That said, they are discerning, and a price that feels out of step with the market will simply be ignored.
What history tells us, though, is that people will carry on moving. People carried on moving after the 2022 mini-budget. They carried on moving through the upheaval of Covid. They even carried on moving in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crash. Momentum may slow, but it does not stop, and we fully expect this year to see well over a million sales agreed across the UK, with transactions completing in similar numbers. January alone say close to 95,000 sales transact (Dataloft, ONS) – a firm indicator for the year ahead.
As for property prices, a perennial concern: a crash is not in prospect.
The conditions that cause dramatic price corrections – i.e. forced selling, widespread negative equity, a sudden collapse in demand – are not present in any meaningful way. There may be isolated regional softening in some markets, and pockets where values plateau or dip modestly, but the overall picture is nevertheless one of resilience, not retreat.
It doesn’t mean that it will be easy, either! But we have seen this sort of market before, and we do know what we need to do to get you moved.
If you would like to understand what the current environment means specifically for your property, your mortgage, or your plans as a landlord or homeowner, please pick up the phone to us. These are exactly the conversations we should be having – and the sooner the better.
________________________________________
All market data referenced above is sourced from Dataloft by Pricehubble, Rightmove House Price Index (January 2026), Halifax, Moneyfacts, Office for National Statistics and industry transaction data current to the date of publication, 19 March 2026.
