This week brought some mixed economic news. For several months we have seen gradually falling inflation, leading to six base rate cuts since August 2024, with hopes for more. But this week we heard that inflation has ticked up again, to 3.4% in December, from 3.2% in November.

At the same time, however, the Rightmove House Price Index reported the largest January rise in average asking prices since the index began 25 years ago. 2.8%!

In many ways this is being read as signalling renewed economic confidence.

So what does this mean for your house move in Oxford? Is one right and one wrong? Does one bit of news matter more, and the other less. If you are selling your home?

Overall, there is still plenty of reason to feel confident about moving home.

Here is a breakdown of the key developments and what they mean for the weeks and months ahead.

Understanding December’s inflation rise

Before sounding any alarm bells, it is worth understanding what drove December’s inflation uptick. Not only that, but to note that it had been expected – albeit the expectation was to see 3.3%, and it rose to 3.4.

The increase was largely attributed to specific sectors rather than broad price pressures across the whole economy, with tobacco duty changes and higher December air fares playing a big part in the rise.

Economists often describe these as largely “one‑off” or time‑limited factors: temporary bumps in certain industries or sectors, rather than clear evidence of a full reversal in the broader disinflation trend.

The bigger picture on inflation

Despite December’s surprise, the wider view among many forecasters is that inflation is still likely to move closer to the Bank of England’s 2% target over the course of 2026. That matters.

The exact pace and timing are uncertain, and recent data is a reminder that the path downwards will not always be smooth. In fact, we shouldn’t expect it to be.

For homeowners and movers, it is the broader trend which matters more than any single monthly figure. It is the medium‑term outlook after all that will guide interest rate decisions and, in turn, mortgage pricing.

What this could mean for interest rates

With inflation ticking up slightly, the February interest rate decision has become more finely balanced. It makes it more likely that the Bank of England will hold rates steady at that meeting, as policymakers will want clearer evidence that inflation is firmly under control before making cuts.

Here is how we expect this to affect Oxford homeowners and buyers:

• For those on variable and tracker mortgages: Payments are likely to stay broadly where they are in the near term. However, if inflation resumes its downward trend later in the year, further rate cuts are still expected in 2026 and these sorts of mortgages track the base rate – tracker rates directly, variable rates less so, but broadly speaking.
• For those seeking fixed‑rate mortgages: Lenders have been competing in recent weeks to bring their product rates down and win customers. This latest inflation news may cause fixed‑rate reductions to level off in the short term, but there remain some appealing products for buyers and those remortgaging.

The property market remains resilient

Some genuinely encouraging news is that the property market continues to show real resilience. Rightmove’s latest index shows January produced the largest jump in average asking prices for any January since the measure began, suggesting that buyer confidence and demand have picked up again.

For sellers in Oxford, it will come as welcome relief. It is well known that London’s market has taken a downturn in recent months – at odds with the rest of the country, overall, but perhaps a historic correction of sorts, after the steep rises seen in London over previous years. 

But certain markets have followed suit, and whilst Oxford hasn't seen the same level of price decline as London, it has nevertheless fallen - which naturally affects confidence amongst those thinking of selling. The average property value in Oxford currently is, in fact, 5% lower than it was 12 months ago, according to Rightmove’s data. The average property here is now £560,288.

That said, well-presented, well-priced homes are attracting strong interest, and, in many cases, actually securing better prices than a few months ago.

Overall, however, confidence has taken a knock as prices have dropped – not just in Oxford but across Oxfordshire and, indeed, the South East.

Rightmove’s House Price Index news might be the signal, therefore, that this low confidence might be about to turn.

For buyers, rising prices are never ideal, but they do indicate a healthy, functioning market rather than a stagnant or falling one. Also, for any buyers who have been watching, waiting for the bottom of the market, this might be the sign you need that things are not likely to fall further. 5% in a year is significant, but as confidence starts to return to the wider market, this pattern is likely to reverse fairly quickly.

A promising window of opportunity

Taking all of this together, the first half of 2026 looks set to be a favourable time to make your move in Oxford.

We remain one of the country’s most sought-after locations, with our history, University environment, low crime rate, excellent transport links and access to wonderful green spaces and surrounding countryside. Demand for quality homes here often outstrips the supply coming to market.

Mortgage rates, while not guaranteed to fall further immediately, are generally far more manageable than they were 12–18 months ago, bringing some previously priced‑out buyers back into the market.

If you are selling, you are doing so against a backdrop of recovering asking prices here in Oxford. If you are buying, moving sooner rather than later may mean getting in ahead of any further price growth should the current momentum continue.

A balanced approach to moving in 2026

A rise in inflation, even a relatively modest one driven by specific categories, is not ideal news and does add a note of caution to the near‑term outlook.

At best, it may delay the interest rate cuts that many were hoping to see early this year, and there is no guarantee about the speed or scale of future reductions.

However, context is crucial. The overall picture still looks positive – by comparison to the way things looked in 2025, for example. Inflation is expected by many to ease over time, borrowing costs have reduced, and when it comes to the property market, we see it demonstrating renewed strength.

For those considering a move in Oxford in 2026, with every reason to expect that the fall in property prices may at last be levelling off, it is a positive moment for sellers and buyers alike.

As always, speaking with a professional adviser is the best way to understand how these trends apply to your specific budget and plans. If you are thinking about selling or buying in Oxford this year, we would be delighted to talk you through the local market, help you plan your move and support you in finding your new home, or securing a buyer for your own.